Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s opening weekend gross was $209 million. This weekend, the MCU blockbuster will dominate the box office, and it will likely retain that position until December 16.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has passed the $400 million mark at the global box office after just six days of release 🤯🍿
— My Mixtapez (@mymixtapez) November 19, 2022
The question now is how well it will hold up and how much it can prop up a weak box office, which saw no other film make the double digits last weekend (unfortunately, this stat is likely to repeat itself this weekend; in better times, the second weekend of the first Black Panther had three films above $10 million).
Wakanda Forever may keep weekend box office above $100 million. With other movies opening this weekend and few surprises, a 60% decline in profits for the sequel would net $72.5 million.
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Ranked as the number two weekend of all time
Wakanda Forever is predicted to outperform this year’s previous MCU films Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder, which both dropped 67-68% in their second weekends (which is suitable for any film and especially great for such a prominent opener, ranking as the second best weekend two hold ever for a movie to open above $150 million and the best for a film to open over $200 million). Wakanda Forever’s second-weekend profits would rank 10th all-time and reach $85.2 million.
A second weekend total of $60 million looks like the worst-case scenario, but it would still give it a 10-day cume in the mid $200s, a significant spread even if it isn’t enough to salvage the box office.
Sixth film to top $300 million by Sunday,
Wakanda Forever may become the sixth film of the year to surpass $300 million by Sunday, making it the fastest (Top Gun: Maverick took 11 days) and tying it for 12th all-time (the first Black Panther is tied for fifth, getting there in just eight days). If it arrives in 12 days, it’ll be the quickest of the year (connected with Maverick) or second-fastest (tied with Multiverse of Madness).
This weekend’s new releases aren’t very noteworthy. The Menu, a fine-dining genre film, has Searchlight’s broadest release (3,100 theatres). Anya Taylor-Joy and Nicholas Hoult visit a Ralph Fiennes-owned restaurant with secret objectives. Ready or Not, a 2019 Searchlight film, is a parallel.
The Menu (91%) was well-received by critics, whereas other genre films have run their course. Fans may be underwhelmed by Universal’s She Said, which opened in 2000 theatres. Carey Mulligan (Megan Twohey) and Zoe Kazan play the NYT reporters that uncovered Harvey Weinstein’s sexual misdeeds (Jodi Kantor).
Bombshell, which premiered at $5.1 million on 1,480 screens and made $31.8 million because of its higher star power, more widely appealing subject matter, and lighter tone, is a good comparison. The $32 million drama has earned positive reviews (86 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and has been regarded as a probable Oscar candidate.
Bones and All will have a limited release in New York and Los Angeles (five theatres total). Taylor Russell, Timothée Chalamet, and Mark Rylance feature in United Artists Releasing’s picture.